The Ottawa Real Estate Market in Late 2025: Winter Stability Before the Spring Revival

As 2025 draws to a close, the real estate market in Canada’s capital, Ottawa, shows clear signs of stabilization and adaptation. After several months of slower activity caused by high interest rates, the market is entering its traditionally quiet winter period, but with high expectations for 2026.

The main trend dominating the end of the year is the strong anticipation of interest rate cuts, which is already fueling pent-up demand. Ottawa remains a reliable market where prices are growing moderately, maintaining its characteristic resilience.

What is Happening with Prices Now? Key Statistics for Q4 2025

Data for Q4 2025 (as of October) confirms that the market is in a phase of moderate growth, especially in key family housing segments.

Source: OREB analytical data and market expert forecasts, late 2025.

Analysis of Price Movements:

1. Family Housing Resilience: Prices for single-family homes and townhouses continue to grow, albeit at a moderate pace. This indicates sustained high demand from families and migrants who value quality of life and more space.
2. Buyer-Friendly Condo Market: The apartment market remains softer, showing a slight annual price decrease. This makes condominiums the most affordable option and the best entry point for first-time buyers and investors seeking higher rental yields.
3. Increasing Inventory: The number of active listings has increased compared to the peak years, giving buyers more choice and time for decision-making, eliminating the "bidding wars" typical of 2021–2022.

Forecast for 2026: A Return to Growth

Most economists and real estate experts predict that 2026 will be a year of rebound in sales and active price growth in the Ottawa market.

Key Factors and 2026 Forecast:

• Interest Rate Cuts: The Bank of Canada is expected to continue lowering its key interest rate throughout 2026. Each cut, even by 25 basis points, will increase purchasing power and activate pent-up demand.
• Surge in Demand: Buyers who have been waiting for rate cuts (especially those looking to upgrade) will enter the market en masse, leading to a surge in transactions.
• Price Growth Forecast (Aggregate Price): The overall price of real estate in Ottawa is expected to grow by 3.0% to 5.0% in 2026. The growth will be particularly noticeable in the townhouse and affordable housing segments.
• Condo Market: After the stagnation of 2025, the condominium segment is also likely to start appreciating, but at a more moderate pace (around 1.5% - 3.0%), as its affordability attracts first-time buyers.

Advice for Market Players at the 2025–2026 Crossroads

For Buyers (Late 2025 – Early 2026):

• Time to Act Now: Winter 2025/2026 may be the last period of relative quiet before the spring surge of demand in 2026. Buying before the significant rate cuts could secure a better price.
• Lock in Rates: Consider mortgage options that allow you to lock in the current rate but include a "blend and extend" feature for potential rate review if market rates drop significantly.
• Condos as a Starting Point: If you are a first-time buyer, condominiums offer the best balance of price and growth potential in 2026.

For Sellers (Early 2026):

• Prepare for Spring: Spring 2026 is expected to be very active. Prepare your home for sale in advance (renovations, staging) to capitalize on peak demand.
• Pricing Remains Critical: Although demand will increase, buyers remain price-sensitive. Professional pricing that reflects current realities will ensure a fast and profitable transaction.

Conclusion:

The end of 2025 is a time of strategic waiting in the Ottawa real estate market. It is a market on the verge of a new growth cycle. 2026 is poised to be a turning point, where Ottawa's steady demand, fueled by interest rate relief, will lead to renewed activity and moderate, sustained price appreciation.